Wednesday, November 23, 2011

$6 Billion in Groupon Market Cap Erased in Two Days

The timing on this short was more lucky than smart.  After another -15% performance, today Groupon (GRPN) is down to a more reasonable $10 B valuation.  Of course, the company is probably worth something closer to $5 B (a stock price of around $9).  This chart looks like GRPN is headed to $13 in a hurry...but it is very greedy to ask for more after a 38% drop in two days.  I'm a Market Monkey, not a Market Piggy.  

The Friday after Thanksgiving is typically a very light day in volume, and the price could come back against us in bad way.  Of course, a crisis is on the horizon and some type of short position is probably prudent. Groupon is still overvalued at $10 B.

But the Market Monkey thinks it better to close the position and head off into a long holiday. Had it gone the other way (going long at $17), we would be looking at a 44% gain in two days.  Let's be Eee, Eee, Ah, Ah...not Oink, Oink, Oink.  It's time to sell.  I might revisit this short again, but this is too much action in two days not to walk away.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!




MONKEY BUSINESS

Short Covering: GRPN @ $17.10 ($24.51)
Holding: AGQ ($79.85, $63.16, $54.10),  UGL @ $91.00, AVL($2.72), NFLX ($74.70)


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